Planning

Fuel Poverty Modelling

  • Department for Energy Security & Net Zero

F01: Prior information notice (prior information only)

Notice identifier: 2023/S 000-032803

Procurement identifier (OCID): ocds-h6vhtk-041622

Published 6 November 2023, 3:08pm



Section one: Contracting authority

one.1) Name and addresses

Department for Energy Security & Net Zero

London

Email

mercedes.ekanem@energysecurity.gov.uk

Country

United Kingdom

Region code

UK - United Kingdom

Internet address(es)

Main address

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-energy-security-and-net-zero

one.3) Communication

Additional information can be obtained from the above-mentioned address

one.4) Type of the contracting authority

Ministry or any other national or federal authority

one.5) Main activity

General public services


Section two: Object

two.1) Scope of the procurement

two.1.1) Title

Fuel Poverty Modelling

two.1.2) Main CPV code

  • 71314000 - Energy and related services

two.1.3) Type of contract

Services

two.1.4) Short description

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero is legally bound to monitor and publish estimates of fuel poverty by the Warm Homes and Conservation Act 2001, as amended by the Energy Act 2013.

Fuel poverty is measured based on a combination of energy efficiency, energy costs and household income. All the fuel poverty indicators used in England and the other UK nations use these core three measurements to calculate the individual metrics used by each nation to determine whether a household is fuel poor, how deep into fuel poverty it is and what changes in energy efficiency or income/costs would be needed to remove the household from fuel poverty.

The objective of this modelling project is to model those three estimates for households taking part in the English Housing Survey physical survey. While the current metric for fuel poverty in England will be reviewed in the fuel poverty strategy update next year the vast majority of the proposed contracted work is to derive these core measurements that will underpin any likely metric choice. The project will involve developing a detailed understanding of the data sources, energy demand modelling and the fuel poverty metric(s). The modelling needs to continually evolve over time as building technologies, household behaviour and changes in energy demand, energy pricing and impacts of Government policy all have impacts on the number and type of fuel poor households that need to be understood.

The modelling will be used to deliver the annual Fuel Poverty National Statistics consistent with the latest English Housing Survey. The modelling will be used for subsequent in-house projections by DESNZ:

https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/fuel-poverty-statistics

two.1.5) Estimated total value

Value excluding VAT: £1,772,000

two.1.6) Information about lots

This contract is divided into lots: No

two.2) Description

two.2.2) Additional CPV code(s)

  • 71314000 - Energy and related services

two.2.3) Place of performance

NUTS codes
  • UK - United Kingdom

two.2.4) Description of the procurement

The Department for Energy Security & Net Zero (DESNZ) are looking for the provision of annual modelling of the fuel poverty status of households using the secondary modelling of income, energy efficiency and energy costs for households taking part in the English Housing Survey (EHS) survey.

The work will be used to identify households in fuel poverty under the Low Income Low Energy Efficiency and 10% affordability metrics, together with calculation of the fuel poverty gap. The model needs to capture the impact of established and temporary policy effects.

Three key outputs required for the fuel poverty modelling:

• A fuel poverty dataset: with raw EHS and fuel poverty inputs data, as well as new modelled variables.

• Documentation of quality assurance processes and assumptions logs used in the modelling.

• A methodology report outlining the key steps and processes used to model fuel poverty, including key assumptions and models used.

two.2.14) Additional information

The value of the contract is an estimate and is the total value across the lifetime of the contract if all terms and extensions are used. The indicative contract term would be four years. This would be an initial two year term, with the option of two 12 month extensions built in.

two.3) Estimated date of publication of contract notice

7 December 2023


Section four. Procedure

four.1) Description

four.1.8) Information about the Government Procurement Agreement (GPA)

The procurement is covered by the Government Procurement Agreement: Yes


Section six. Complementary information

six.3) Additional information

A pre-market engagement session will be held on 23 November 2023. This will be led by Commercial and Policy representatives from the Department for Energy Security & Net Zero (DESNZ). The session will give further details on the requirement.

There will be a Q&A session at the end of the session and bidders are encouraged to come with questions ready.

To confirm your interest, please email: Mercedes.Ekanem@energysecurity.gov.uk with your contact details and further information will be sent.