Tender

Financial Risk Modelling Services

  • Homes England (the name adopted by the Homes and Communities Agency)

F02: Contract notice

Notice identifier: 2023/S 000-026998

Procurement identifier (OCID): ocds-h6vhtk-03fc2b

Published 12 September 2023, 4:50pm



Section one: Contracting authority

one.1) Name and addresses

Homes England (the name adopted by the Homes and Communities Agency)

1 Friargate

Coventry

CV1 2GN

Contact

Ms Vicky Mordey

Email

vicky.mordey@homesengland.gov.uk

Telephone

+44 1158526998

Country

United Kingdom

Region code

UK - United Kingdom

Internet address(es)

Main address

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/homes-england

Buyer's address

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/homes-england

one.3) Communication

The procurement documents are available for unrestricted and full direct access, free of charge, at

https://procontract.due-north.com/Advert/Index?advertId=60bcf490-e7b8-ed11-8120-005056b64545

Additional information can be obtained from the above-mentioned address

Tenders or requests to participate must be submitted electronically via

https://procontract.due-north.com/Advert/Index?advertId=60bcf490-e7b8-ed11-8120-005056b64545

one.4) Type of the contracting authority

National or federal Agency/Office

one.5) Main activity

Housing and community amenities


Section two: Object

two.1) Scope of the procurement

two.1.1) Title

Financial Risk Modelling Services

Reference number

DN658913

two.1.2) Main CPV code

  • 66000000 - Financial and insurance services

two.1.3) Type of contract

Services

two.1.4) Short description

Homes England produces a range of macroeconomic forecasts on a quarterly basis. These macroeconomic forecasts need to be translated into the impact on the portfolio, and used to quantify, understand, and manage the financial risk to the Agency.

Homes England manages a multi-billion-pound Recoverable Investment portfolio consisting of c. 300 loans. The portfolio has been running since 2016 and is highly concentrated in the UK housing market with a skew towards small / medium housebuilders with limited financial and credit history, as well as special purpose vehicles (SPVs) set up to specifically to develop a site. Security for the loans is typically provided by the land associated with the development. Internal data for quantitatively estimating the impact of different macroeconomic scenarios on the various model parameters is limited.

A range of models including Expected Credit Loss models and Stress Testing models are used to quantify the financial risk of different macroeconomic scenarios on the Recoverable Investment portfolio. The inputs into these models are generally Probability of Default estimates (both through the cycle and point in time), exposure at default estimates, and Loss Given Default estimates. The regularly updated macroeconomic forecasts therefore need to be translated into these parameters for use in the various models. The Quantitative Risk and Stress Testing team (QRS) at Homes England manages this process.

All loans are internally credit rated on origination and on a regular basis throughout the term of the loan. The current process for producing the parameter estimates involves both quantitative analysis and qualitative assessment, converting the internal ratings into the required parameter estimates. Homes England also subscribes to an external ratings agency service to assist with benchmarking the estimates.

Homes England is seeking assistance on producing these estimates on an ongoing basis. This requirement forms Lot 1: Financial Risk Parameter Estimation Services (£500k estimated value) of the Service. See Appendix A: Lot 1 Service Scope. It is envisaged that a single supplier will be appointed to lot 1.

Homes England is also seeking support in designing, building, and implementing additional financial and financial risk models to improve its understanding of the current portfolio, and to model new products and programmes. This requirement forms Lot 2: Financial Risk Modelling Advisory Services (£500k estimated value). See Appendix B: Lot 2 Service Scope. It is envisaged that there will be 4 suppliers appointed for lot 2.

Homes England designs, builds, and maintains a wide range of financial and financial risk models. These models and methodologies are applied to a wide range of financial and risk management problems, including credit risk modelling, scenario analysis and forecasting, stress testing, and IFRS 9. Homes England is also seeking external support to provide model validation and assurance services on these models. This requirement forms Lot 3 Model Review and Validation Services (£300k estimated value). See Appendix C: Lot 3 Service Scope. It is envisaged that a single supplier will be appointed to lot 3

two.1.6) Information about lots

This contract is divided into lots: Yes

Tenders may be submitted for all lots

two.2) Description

two.2.1) Title

Financial Risk Parameter Estimation Services

Lot No

1

two.2.2) Additional CPV code(s)

  • 66000000 - Financial and insurance services

two.2.3) Place of performance

NUTS codes
  • UK - United Kingdom

two.2.4) Description of the procurement

Homes England means Homes England (the name adopted by the Homes and Communities Agency), or anyone acting on behalf of Homes England that is seeking to invite suitable Suppliers to participate in this procurement process.

Homes England produces a range of macroeconomic forecasts on a quarterly basis. These macroeconomic forecasts need to be translated into the impact on the portfolio, and used to quantify, understand, and manage the financial risk to the Agency.

Homes England manages a multi-billion-pound Recoverable Investment portfolio consisting of c. 300 loans. The portfolio has been running since 2016 and is highly concentrated in the UK housing market with a skew towards small / medium housebuilders with limited financial and credit history, as well as special purpose vehicles (SPVs) set up to specifically to develop a site. Security for the loans is typically provided by the land associated with the development. Internal data for quantitatively estimating the impact of different macroeconomic scenarios on the various model parameters is limited.

A range of models including Expected Credit Loss models and Stress Testing models are used to quantify the financial risk of different macroeconomic scenarios on the Recoverable Investment portfolio. The inputs into these models are generally Probability of Default estimates (both through the cycle and point in time), exposure at default estimates, and Loss Given Default estimates. The regularly updated macroeconomic forecasts therefore need to be translated into these parameters for use in the various models. The Quantitative Risk and Stress Testing team (QRS) at Homes England manages this process.

All loans are internally credit rated on origination and on a regular basis throughout the term of the loan. The current process for producing the parameter estimates involves both quantitative analysis and qualitative assessment, converting the internal ratings into the required parameter estimates. Homes England also subscribes to an external ratings agency service to assist with benchmarking the estimates.

Homes England is seeking assistance on producing these estimates on an ongoing basis.

two.2.5) Award criteria

Price is not the only award criterion and all criteria are stated only in the procurement documents

two.2.7) Duration of the contract, framework agreement or dynamic purchasing system

Duration in months

24

This contract is subject to renewal

Yes

Description of renewals

option to extend by two 12 month periods

two.2.10) Information about variants

Variants will be accepted: No

two.2.11) Information about options

Options: No

two.2.13) Information about European Union Funds

The procurement is related to a project and/or programme financed by European Union funds: No

two.2) Description

two.2.1) Title

Financial Risk Modelling Advisory Services

Lot No

2

two.2.2) Additional CPV code(s)

  • 66000000 - Financial and insurance services

two.2.3) Place of performance

NUTS codes
  • UK - United Kingdom

two.2.4) Description of the procurement

Homes England means Homes England (the name adopted by the Homes and Communities Agency), or anyone acting on behalf of Homes England that is seeking to invite suitable Suppliers to participate in this procurement process.

Homes England manages a multi-billion-pound portfolio involving a wide range of complex interventions and financial programmes. The portfolio includes the Government’s £19bn Help to Buy product, £1.1bn in land assets, and £2.2bn in financial investments (loans, equity investments, and guarantees). The portfolio is highly concentrated in the UK housing market.

The Agency designs, builds, and maintains a wide range of financial and financial risk models in tools including excel, VBA, SQL, and python. These models and methodologies are applied to a wide range of financial and risk management problems, including credit risk modelling, scenario analysis and forecasting, stress testing, and IFRS 9.

The Agency requires support in designing, building, and implementing additional financial and financial risk models to improve its understanding of the current portfolio, and to model new products and programmes.

two.2.5) Award criteria

Price is not the only award criterion and all criteria are stated only in the procurement documents

two.2.7) Duration of the contract, framework agreement or dynamic purchasing system

Duration in months

24

This contract is subject to renewal

Yes

Description of renewals

option to extend by two 12 month periods

two.2.10) Information about variants

Variants will be accepted: No

two.2.11) Information about options

Options: No

two.2.13) Information about European Union Funds

The procurement is related to a project and/or programme financed by European Union funds: No

two.2) Description

two.2.1) Title

Model Review and Validation Services

Lot No

3

two.2.2) Additional CPV code(s)

  • 66000000 - Financial and insurance services

two.2.3) Place of performance

NUTS codes
  • UK - United Kingdom

two.2.4) Description of the procurement

Homes England means Homes England (the name adopted by the Homes and Communities Agency), or anyone acting on behalf of Homes England that is seeking to invite suitable Suppliers to participate in this procurement process.

Homes England manages a multi-billion-pound portfolio involving a wide range of complex interventions and financial programmes. The portfolio includes the Government’s £19bn Help to Buy product, £1.1bn in land assets, and £2.2bn in financial investments (loans, equity investments, and guarantees). The portfolio is highly concentrated in the UK housing market.

The Agency designs, builds, and maintains a wide range of financial and financial risk models. These models and methodologies are applied to a wide range of financial and risk management problems, including credit risk modelling, scenario analysis and forecasting, stress testing, and IFRS 9.

These models are built in a range of tools including excel, VBA, python, and SQL.

The Agency requires external support to provide model validation and assurance services.

two.2.5) Award criteria

Price is not the only award criterion and all criteria are stated only in the procurement documents

two.2.7) Duration of the contract, framework agreement or dynamic purchasing system

Duration in months

24

This contract is subject to renewal

Yes

Description of renewals

option to extend by two 12 month periods

two.2.10) Information about variants

Variants will be accepted: No

two.2.11) Information about options

Options: No

two.2.13) Information about European Union Funds

The procurement is related to a project and/or programme financed by European Union funds: No


Section three. Legal, economic, financial and technical information

three.1) Conditions for participation

three.1.2) Economic and financial standing

Selection criteria as stated in the procurement documents

three.1.3) Technical and professional ability

Selection criteria as stated in the procurement documents

three.2) Conditions related to the contract

three.2.3) Information about staff responsible for the performance of the contract

Obligation to indicate the names and professional qualifications of the staff assigned to performing the contract


Section four. Procedure

four.1) Description

four.1.1) Type of procedure

Open procedure

four.1.8) Information about the Government Procurement Agreement (GPA)

The procurement is covered by the Government Procurement Agreement: Yes

four.2) Administrative information

four.2.2) Time limit for receipt of tenders or requests to participate

Date

13 October 2023

Local time

12:00pm

four.2.4) Languages in which tenders or requests to participate may be submitted

English

four.2.7) Conditions for opening of tenders

Date

12 October 2023

Local time

4:00pm


Section six. Complementary information

six.1) Information about recurrence

This is a recurrent procurement: Yes

six.4) Procedures for review

six.4.1) Review body

Royal Court of Justice

London

Country

United Kingdom