Section one: Contracting authority
one.1) Name and addresses
Government Actuary Department
10 South Colonnade
London
E14 4BU
Country
United Kingdom
Region code
UKI42 - Tower Hamlets
Justification for not providing organisation identifier
Not on any register
Internet address(es)
Main address
https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/government-actuarys-department
one.4) Type of the contracting authority
Ministry or any other national or federal authority
one.5) Main activity
Economic and financial affairs
Section two: Object
two.1) Scope of the procurement
two.1.1) Title
Economic Scenario Files
Reference number
CON005
two.1.2) Main CPV code
- 79311400 - Economic research services
two.1.3) Type of contract
Services
two.1.4) Short description
The Government Actuary's Department is seeking a Provider to provide stochastic simulations of economic scenarios and asset returns.
two.1.6) Information about lots
This contract is divided into lots: No
two.1.7) Total value of the procurement (excluding VAT)
Value excluding VAT: £10,000
two.2) Description
two.2.2) Additional CPV code(s)
- 79311400 - Economic research services
two.2.3) Place of performance
NUTS codes
- UK - United Kingdom
two.2.4) Description of the procurement
The Government Actuary's Department ('GAD') is a non-ministerial Government department with a
mission to improve the stewardship of public sector finances by supporting effective decisionmaking and robust financial reporting through actuarial analysis, modelling and advice. We provide
actuarial solutions including financial risk analysis, modelling and advice to support the UK public
sector. We apply the actuarial profession's technical skills, consultancy discipline, high standards
of professionalism and industry sector knowledge to solve financial challenges faced by the UK
public sector.
GAD is currently advising a client who requires analysis of future asset and liability outcomes. To
support our advice in this area, GAD are looking to tender for a contract for the provision of a
stochastic real-world economic scenario set ("scenario set" or "economic scenario file"). The
economic scenario file should contain stochastic forecasts of economic scenarios covering
investment returns for a range of asset classes, as well as inflation measures, for a retail investor
in the UK.
GAD already receives quarterly scenario sets from our regular projection provider and this contract
is a one-off exercise to supplement those projections, to help us test the sensitivity of our analysis
to the selected scenarios. While the focus of this work is to satisfy the requirements of a single
Government Actuary's Department - Invitation to Tender - Economic Scenarios
19
client, we reserve the right to use any scenario sets provided to us as part of this contract in work
for other clients where we deem it to be applicable.
We require an initial scenario set calibrated with an effective date as at or before 31 December
2023 and delivered as soon as possible after the tender is awarded. This calibration should be
based on standard assumptions that reflect the provider's own views.
Based on this scenario set and subsequent engagement between the supplier, GAD and the
client, additional scenarios set may be required. Depending on the views of the client, the potential
outcomes include:
• No additional scenario sets are required.
• One or more additional scenario sets, which reflect the provider's own views, are
required.
• One or more additional scenario sets, adjusted in consultation with GAD and the client,
are required.
These additional scenario sets will be calibrated with an effective date as at or after 31 December
2023. These additional scenario sets will be covered under this contract (ie separate procurement
exercises will not be conducted). Based on our current timelines, GAD expect we will only require
one additional scenario set, if any additional scenario sets are required.
Please highlight in your costings the impact of these different options.
We also require that the scenarios:
• Are based on sound economic principles and methods.
• Are calibrated to reflect the market and economic conditions at the effective date to
ensure consistency with the date at which they are used.
• Are calibrated to reflect the provider's own view on the long-term outcome for key
economic variables in the scenario set, with any changes as required based on
consultation with GAD and our client.
GAD recognises that it may also be possible to procure access to an "economic scenario model"
to provide the capability for GAD to produce the scenarios files described above ourselves. Due to
current levels of capacity and capability, our preference is for the scenario sets to be provided to
us based on calibration targets, adjustments and stresses that are discussed and agreed with the
supplier. It is therefore essential that tenderers have the capability to deliver scenarios to us
directly.
The outcome of this analysis will be published publicly, alongside some detail of the underlying
asset and liability assumptions. This published information could include details of the asset return
and inflation assumptions.
two.2.5) Award criteria
Quality criterion - Name: Quality Criteria / Weighting: 25
Quality criterion - Name: Service Provision / Weighting: 15
Quality criterion - Name: Technical Specification / Weighting: 35
Price - Weighting: 25
two.2.11) Information about options
Options: No
Section four. Procedure
four.1) Description
four.1.1) Type of procedure
Open procedure
four.1.8) Information about the Government Procurement Agreement (GPA)
The procurement is covered by the Government Procurement Agreement: No
four.2) Administrative information
four.2.1) Previous publication concerning this procedure
Notice number: 2021/S 000-016481
Section five. Award of contract
A contract/lot is awarded: Yes
five.2) Award of contract
five.2.1) Date of conclusion of the contract
15 February 2024
five.2.2) Information about tenders
Number of tenders received: 4
The contract has been awarded to a group of economic operators: No
five.2.3) Name and address of the contractor
Conning Holdings Limited
24 Monument Street
London
EC3R 8AJ
Country
United Kingdom
NUTS code
- UK - United Kingdom
Companies House
09632069
The contractor is an SME
No
five.2.4) Information on value of contract/lot (excluding VAT)
Initial estimated total value of the contract/lot: £10,000
Total value of the contract/lot: £10,000
Section six. Complementary information
six.4) Procedures for review
six.4.1) Review body
Government Actuary's Department
London
Country
United Kingdom