Section one: Contracting authority
one.1) Name and addresses
Government Actuary Department
Finlaison House,15-17 Furnival Street
LONDON
EC4A1AB
Contact
Charles Pettit
Telephone
+44 7305605377
Country
United Kingdom
NUTS code
UK - United Kingdom
Internet address(es)
Main address
https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/government-actuarys-department
one.3) Communication
The procurement documents are available for unrestricted and full direct access, free of charge, at
https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/92b4b397-37cf-411d-8cf7-b90f5ef2f744
Additional information can be obtained from the above-mentioned address
Tenders or requests to participate must be submitted electronically via
https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/92b4b397-37cf-411d-8cf7-b90f5ef2f744
one.4) Type of the contracting authority
National or federal Agency/Office
one.5) Main activity
Economic and financial affairs
Section two: Object
two.1) Scope of the procurement
two.1.1) Title
Government Actuary's Department - Stochastic Economic Scenarios
two.1.2) Main CPV code
- 66519600 - Actuarial services
two.1.3) Type of contract
Services
two.1.4) Short description
A key part of our advice relates to, or relies on, the potential outturns for key economic variables - in particular in relation to asset returns, inflation and future interest rates. To support our advice in this area, GAD are looking to tender for a contract for the provision of a set of stochastic economic scenarios ("scenarios", "scenario set" or "economic scenario file").
The economic scenario file should contain stochastic forecasts of economic scenarios covering inflation, interest rates, credit, derivatives, FX and a range of asset classes. The scenarios are used in several areas of our advice, particularly for asset liability model runs for pension schemes, and are used to examine and illustrate the potential range of possible future outcomes.
We require that a set of scenarios be provided to us regularly, at least quarterly, over the period of the contract. We also required that the scenarios:
i) are based on sound economic principles and methods;
ii) are calibrated to reflect the market and economic conditions at the effective date of the calibration to ensure consistency with the date at which they are used; and
iii) are calibrated to reflect either the provider's own view or GAD's own house-view on the long-term outcome for key economic variables in the scenario set.
GAD does not currently have a current provider of this service, though we have previously purchased one-off calibrations to support particular projects.
In addition to the standard scenario files based on these principles, it is standard actuarial practice to consider other plausible assumptions and demonstrate the sensitivity of our advice to other assumptions. To inform this, we also require the ability to generate additional scenarios based on alternative views and calibration parameters and/or carry out stress testing on the scenario set.
GAD recognises that it may also be possible to procure access to an "economic scenario model" to provide the capability for GAD to produce the scenarios files described above ourselves. Due to current levels of capacity and capability, our preference is for the scenario sets to be provided to us based on calibration targets, adjustments and stresses that are discussed and agreed with the supplier. It is therefore essential that tenderers have the capability to deliver scenarios to us directly. However, depending on the level of capacity and capability required to maintain and run such models ourselves, GAD are interested to explore this as an additional service and tenderers are invited to disclose such service provision in their response.
Tenders for must be submitted via email to procurement@gad.gov.uk. Failure to do so may result in the tender response not being processed or the response being automatically disqualified during the evaluation stage of the tender process.
two.1.5) Estimated total value
Value excluding VAT: £10,000
two.1.6) Information about lots
This contract is divided into lots: No
two.2) Description
two.2.2) Additional CPV code(s)
- 66519600 - Actuarial services
two.2.3) Place of performance
NUTS codes
- UK - United Kingdom
two.2.4) Description of the procurement
A key part of our advice relates to, or relies on, the potential outturns for key economic variables - in particular in relation to asset returns, inflation and future interest rates. To support our advice in this area, GAD are looking to tender for a contract for the provision of a set of stochastic economic scenarios ("scenarios", "scenario set" or "economic scenario file").
The economic scenario file should contain stochastic forecasts of economic scenarios covering inflation, interest rates, credit, derivatives, FX and a range of asset classes. The scenarios are used in several areas of our advice, particularly for asset liability model runs for pension schemes, and are used to examine and illustrate the potential range of possible future outcomes.
We require that a set of scenarios be provided to us regularly, at least quarterly, over the period of the contract. We also required that the scenarios:
i) are based on sound economic principles and methods;
ii) are calibrated to reflect the market and economic conditions at the effective date of the calibration to ensure consistency with the date at which they are used; and
iii) are calibrated to reflect either the provider's own view or GAD's own house-view on the long-term outcome for key economic variables in the scenario set.
GAD does not currently have a current provider of this service, though we have previously purchased one-off calibrations to support particular projects.
In addition to the standard scenario files based on these principles, it is standard actuarial practice to consider other plausible assumptions and demonstrate the sensitivity of our advice to other assumptions. To inform this, we also require the ability to generate additional scenarios based on alternative views and calibration parameters and/or carry out stress testing on the scenario set.
GAD recognises that it may also be possible to procure access to an "economic scenario model" to provide the capability for GAD to produce the scenarios files described above ourselves. Due to current levels of capacity and capability, our preference is for the scenario sets to be provided to us based on calibration targets, adjustments and stresses that are discussed and agreed with the supplier. It is therefore essential that tenderers have the capability to deliver scenarios to us directly. However, depending on the level of capacity and capability required to maintain and run such models ourselves, GAD are interested to explore this as an additional service and tenderers are invited to disclose such service provision in their response.
Tenders for must be submitted via email to procurement@gad.gov.uk. Failure to do so may result in the tender response not being processed or the response being automatically disqualified during the evaluation stage of the tender process.
two.2.5) Award criteria
Price is not the only award criterion and all criteria are stated only in the procurement documents
two.2.6) Estimated value
Value excluding VAT: £10,000
two.2.7) Duration of the contract, framework agreement or dynamic purchasing system
Duration in months
36
This contract is subject to renewal
Yes
Description of renewals
Option to extend the contract by 2 years and the option of a 2 year break clause.
two.2.10) Information about variants
Variants will be accepted: Yes
two.2.11) Information about options
Options: No
Section three. Legal, economic, financial and technical information
three.1) Conditions for participation
three.1.1) Suitability to pursue the professional activity, including requirements relating to enrolment on professional or trade registers
List and brief description of conditions
See Invitation to Tender through link - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/92b4b397-37cf-411d-8cf7-b90f5ef2f744
three.1.2) Economic and financial standing
Selection criteria as stated in the procurement documents
three.1.3) Technical and professional ability
Selection criteria as stated in the procurement documents
three.2) Conditions related to the contract
three.2.2) Contract performance conditions
See Invitation to Tender through link - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/92b4b397-37cf-411d-8cf7-b90f5ef2f744
Section four. Procedure
four.1) Description
four.1.1) Type of procedure
Open procedure
four.1.8) Information about the Government Procurement Agreement (GPA)
The procurement is covered by the Government Procurement Agreement: Yes
four.2) Administrative information
four.2.2) Time limit for receipt of tenders or requests to participate
Date
11 August 2021
four.2.4) Languages in which tenders or requests to participate may be submitted
English
four.2.7) Conditions for opening of tenders
Date
25 August 2021
Local time
11:00pm
Section six. Complementary information
six.1) Information about recurrence
This is a recurrent procurement: No
six.2) Information about electronic workflows
Electronic invoicing will be accepted
six.3) Additional information
See Invitation to Tender through link - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/92b4b397-37cf-411d-8cf7-b90f5ef2f744
six.4) Procedures for review
six.4.1) Review body
Appraisal Panel
Finlaison House
London
EC4A 1AB
Country
United Kingdom
six.4.3) Review procedure
Precise information on deadline(s) for review procedures
See Invitation to Tender through link - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/92b4b397-37cf-411d-8cf7-b90f5ef2f744