Scope
Description
Scope
Defra is seeking to commission a research project to quantify how a transition to more sustainable and healthy diets, driven by current consumption trends and potentially enhanced by future demand side policies may influence UK territorial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the food system in the run up to Net Zero 2050.
The study should explore a suite of policy driven and trend driven dietary transition scenarios and assess consequential effects on:
• UK agricultural production patterns
• Trade flows and import/export exposure
• Land use and land use change
• Herd sizes and protein production
• Energy use and food system infrastructure
• Broader system feedbacks (market responses, consumer acceptance, technological shifts)
The project is expected to address these issues through robust modelling, integrating economic, system-dynamic, behavioural, and physical modelling where appropriate, and using both attributional and consequential Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approaches.
Required Expertise
Suppliers (or consortia) should demonstrate:
• Technical expertise in food systems sustainability, greenhouse gas accounting, systems modelling, life cycle assessment.
• Advanced modelling capability, including development and/or application of:
o Systems dynamics models
o Agent-based models
o Integrated assessment or economic models
o Other complex modelling frameworks appropriate for long term scenario design
• Ability to synthesise evidence using government standard approaches, including Quick Scoping Reviews and Rapid Evidence Assessments.
• Critical appraisal skills to articulate uncertainties, limitations, methodological trade-offs, and data gaps.
Consortia and collaborations with academia, research institutes, NGOs, sectoral bodies, and industry partners are welcomed.
Additional Context
This project is informed by a growing evidence base demonstrating that demand side dietary change is likely to be essential for meeting the UK's Net Zero goals, as supply side agricultural efficiencies alone are insufficient. However:
• Existing UK modelling often uses outdated datasets,
• Many studies apply simplified trade assumptions, and
• Few explicitly model the pathways from policy → consumer behaviour → production → territorial emissions.
This project intends to fill these gaps by developing a credible, future facing modelling framework capable of capturing complex interactions across the food system and assessing the role of different policy packages.
Defra has separately commission ADAS to examine the climate implications of market expansion in the UK alternative protein sector (outputs expected May 2026). Alignment between this study and the AP study is encouraged.
Total value (estimated)
- £225,000 excluding VAT
- £270,000 including VAT
Above the relevant threshold
Contract dates (estimated)
- 13 April 2026 to 31 March 2027
- Possible extension to 31 May 2027
- 1 year, 1 month, 18 days
Main procurement category
Services
CPV classifications
- 73200000 - Research and development consultancy services
Contract locations
- UK - United Kingdom
Engagement
Engagement deadline
20 March 2026
Engagement process description
Notice Purpose
Call for Competition: The tender is now live and interested parties are invited to submit bids. To obtain further information, including all documentation, please follow these steps:
1. Locate the opportunity using https://atamis-9529.my.salesforce-sites.com/?searchtype=Projects
2. Click to view documents to view the full Bidders Pack, including the Specification of Requirements
3. To submit a bid, click register your interest and log in or create a supplier account
Procurement Regime
Exempted Contract - Schedule 2, Part 2, Paragraph 22 - R&D Services. No notices will follow this UK2 Call for Competition.
Participation
Particular suitability
- Small and medium-sized enterprises (SME)
- Voluntary, community and social enterprises (VCSE)
Submission
Publication date of tender notice (estimated)
20 March 2026
Contracting authority
DEPARTMENT FOR ENVIRONMENT, FOOD AND RURAL AFFAIRS
- Public Procurement Organisation Number: PNBD-3289-CDGX
Seacole Building, 2 Marsham Street
London
SW1P 4DF
United Kingdom
Contact name: Defra group Commercial
Email: emily.hayes@defra.gov.uk
Region: UKI32 - Westminster
Organisation type: Public authority - central government