{ "uri": "https://www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/api/1.0/ocdsRecordPackages/ocds-h6vhtk-02c7d3", "publisher": { "name": "Cabinet Office", "scheme": "GB-GOR", "uid": "D2", "uri": "https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/cabinet-office" }, "publishedDate": "2024-08-05T13:03:00+01:00", "license": "http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/", "publicationPolicy": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/open-contracting", "version": "1.1", "extensions": [ "https://standard.open-contracting.org/profiles/eu/latest/en/extension.json", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/open-contracting-extensions/ocds_amendment_rationale_classifications_extension/master/extension.json", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/open-contracting-extensions/ocds_budget_breakdown_extension/master/extension.json", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/open-contracting-extensions/ocds_contract_completion_extension/master/extension.json", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/open-contracting-extensions/ocds_documentation_extension/master/extension.json", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/open-contracting-extensions/ocds_pagination_extension/master/extension.json", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/open-contracting-extensions/ocds_suitability_extension/master/extension.json", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/portaledcahn/ocds_Links_extension/main/extension.json", "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/cabinetoffice/ocds_uk_extension/main/extension.json" ], "packages": [ "https://www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/api/1.0/ocdsRecordPackages/ocds-h6vhtk-02c7d3" ], "records": [ { "ocid": "ocds-h6vhtk-02c7d3", "releases": [ { "ocid": "ocds-h6vhtk-02c7d3", "id": "016481-2021", "date": "2021-07-14T13:03:38+01:00", "tag": [ "tender" ], "description": "See Invitation to Tender through link - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/92b4b397-37cf-411d-8cf7-b90f5ef2f744", "initiationType": "tender", "tender": { "id": "ocds-h6vhtk-02c7d3", "legalBasis": { "id": "32014L0024", "scheme": "CELEX" }, "title": "Government Actuary's Department - Stochastic Economic Scenarios", "status": "active", "classification": { "scheme": "CPV", "id": "66519600", "description": "Actuarial services" }, "mainProcurementCategory": "services", "description": "A key part of our advice relates to, or relies on, the potential outturns for key economic variables - in particular in relation to asset returns, inflation and future interest rates. To support our advice in this area, GAD are looking to tender for a contract for the provision of a set of stochastic economic scenarios (\"scenarios\", \"scenario set\" or \"economic scenario file\").\nThe economic scenario file should contain stochastic forecasts of economic scenarios covering inflation, interest rates, credit, derivatives, FX and a range of asset classes. The scenarios are used in several areas of our advice, particularly for asset liability model runs for pension schemes, and are used to examine and illustrate the potential range of possible future outcomes.\nWe require that a set of scenarios be provided to us regularly, at least quarterly, over the period of the contract. We also required that the scenarios:\ni) are based on sound economic principles and methods;\nii) are calibrated to reflect the market and economic conditions at the effective date of the calibration to ensure consistency with the date at which they are used; and\niii) are calibrated to reflect either the provider's own view or GAD's own house-view on the long-term outcome for key economic variables in the scenario set.\nGAD does not currently have a current provider of this service, though we have previously purchased one-off calibrations to support particular projects.\nIn addition to the standard scenario files based on these principles, it is standard actuarial practice to consider other plausible assumptions and demonstrate the sensitivity of our advice to other assumptions. To inform this, we also require the ability to generate additional scenarios based on alternative views and calibration parameters and/or carry out stress testing on the scenario set.\nGAD recognises that it may also be possible to procure access to an \"economic scenario model\" to provide the capability for GAD to produce the scenarios files described above ourselves. Due to current levels of capacity and capability, our preference is for the scenario sets to be provided to us based on calibration targets, adjustments and stresses that are discussed and agreed with the supplier. It is therefore essential that tenderers have the capability to deliver scenarios to us directly. However, depending on the level of capacity and capability required to maintain and run such models ourselves, GAD are interested to explore this as an additional service and tenderers are invited to disclose such service provision in their response.\nTenders for must be submitted via email to procurement@gad.gov.uk. Failure to do so may result in the tender response not being processed or the response being automatically disqualified during the evaluation stage of the tender process.", "value": { "amount": 10000, "currency": "GBP" }, "lots": [ { "id": "1", "description": "A key part of our advice relates to, or relies on, the potential outturns for key economic variables - in particular in relation to asset returns, inflation and future interest rates. To support our advice in this area, GAD are looking to tender for a contract for the provision of a set of stochastic economic scenarios (\"scenarios\", \"scenario set\" or \"economic scenario file\").\nThe economic scenario file should contain stochastic forecasts of economic scenarios covering inflation, interest rates, credit, derivatives, FX and a range of asset classes. The scenarios are used in several areas of our advice, particularly for asset liability model runs for pension schemes, and are used to examine and illustrate the potential range of possible future outcomes.\nWe require that a set of scenarios be provided to us regularly, at least quarterly, over the period of the contract. We also required that the scenarios:\ni) are based on sound economic principles and methods;\nii) are calibrated to reflect the market and economic conditions at the effective date of the calibration to ensure consistency with the date at which they are used; and\niii) are calibrated to reflect either the provider's own view or GAD's own house-view on the long-term outcome for key economic variables in the scenario set.\nGAD does not currently have a current provider of this service, though we have previously purchased one-off calibrations to support particular projects.\nIn addition to the standard scenario files based on these principles, it is standard actuarial practice to consider other plausible assumptions and demonstrate the sensitivity of our advice to other assumptions. To inform this, we also require the ability to generate additional scenarios based on alternative views and calibration parameters and/or carry out stress testing on the scenario set.\nGAD recognises that it may also be possible to procure access to an \"economic scenario model\" to provide the capability for GAD to produce the scenarios files described above ourselves. Due to current levels of capacity and capability, our preference is for the scenario sets to be provided to us based on calibration targets, adjustments and stresses that are discussed and agreed with the supplier. It is therefore essential that tenderers have the capability to deliver scenarios to us directly. 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We provide \nactuarial solutions including financial risk analysis, modelling and advice to support the UK public \nsector. We apply the actuarial profession's technical skills, consultancy discipline, high standards \nof professionalism and industry sector knowledge to solve financial challenges faced by the UK \npublic sector.\nGAD is currently advising a client who requires analysis of future asset and liability outcomes. To \nsupport our advice in this area, GAD are looking to tender for a contract for the provision of a \nstochastic real-world economic scenario set (\"scenario set\" or \"economic scenario file\"). The \neconomic scenario file should contain stochastic forecasts of economic scenarios covering \ninvestment returns for a range of asset classes, as well as inflation measures, for a retail investor \nin the UK.\nGAD already receives quarterly scenario sets from our regular projection provider and this contract \nis a one-off exercise to supplement those projections, to help us test the sensitivity of our analysis \nto the selected scenarios. While the focus of this work is to satisfy the requirements of a single \nGovernment Actuary's Department - Invitation to Tender - Economic Scenarios\n19\nclient, we reserve the right to use any scenario sets provided to us as part of this contract in work \nfor other clients where we deem it to be applicable.\nWe require an initial scenario set calibrated with an effective date as at or before 31 December\n2023 and delivered as soon as possible after the tender is awarded. This calibration should be \nbased on standard assumptions that reflect the provider's own views.\nBased on this scenario set and subsequent engagement between the supplier, GAD and the \nclient, additional scenarios set may be required. Depending on the views of the client, the potential \noutcomes include:\n• No additional scenario sets are required.\n• One or more additional scenario sets, which reflect the provider's own views, are \nrequired.\n• One or more additional scenario sets, adjusted in consultation with GAD and the client, \nare required.\nThese additional scenario sets will be calibrated with an effective date as at or after 31 December \n2023. These additional scenario sets will be covered under this contract (ie separate procurement \nexercises will not be conducted). Based on our current timelines, GAD expect we will only require \none additional scenario set, if any additional scenario sets are required. \nPlease highlight in your costings the impact of these different options. \nWe also require that the scenarios:\n• Are based on sound economic principles and methods.\n• Are calibrated to reflect the market and economic conditions at the effective date to \nensure consistency with the date at which they are used.\n• Are calibrated to reflect the provider's own view on the long-term outcome for key \neconomic variables in the scenario set, with any changes as required based on \nconsultation with GAD and our client.\nGAD recognises that it may also be possible to procure access to an \"economic scenario model\" \nto provide the capability for GAD to produce the scenarios files described above ourselves. Due to \ncurrent levels of capacity and capability, our preference is for the scenario sets to be provided to \nus based on calibration targets, adjustments and stresses that are discussed and agreed with the \nsupplier. It is therefore essential that tenderers have the capability to deliver scenarios to us \ndirectly.\nThe outcome of this analysis will be published publicly, alongside some detail of the underlying \nasset and liability assumptions. This published information could include details of the asset return \nand inflation assumptions.", "awardCriteria": { "criteria": [ { "name": "Quality Criteria", "type": "quality", "description": "25" }, { "name": "Service Provision", "type": "quality", "description": "15" }, { "name": "Technical Specification", "type": "quality", "description": "35" }, { "type": "price", "description": "25" } ] }, "hasOptions": false, "status": "cancelled" } ], "items": [ { "id": "1", "additionalClassifications": [ { "scheme": "CPV", "id": "79311400", "description": "Economic research services" } ], "deliveryAddresses": [ { "region": "UK" } ], "relatedLot": "1" } ], "procurementMethod": "open", "procurementMethodDetails": "Open procedure" }, "awards": [ { "id": "024497-2024-1", "relatedLots": [ "1" ], "status": "active", "suppliers": [ { "id": "GB-COH-09632069", "name": "Conning Holdings Limited" } ] } ], "parties": [ { "name": "Government Actuary Department", "id": "GB-FTS-120485", "identifier": { "legalName": "Government Actuary Department", "noIdentifierRationale": "notOnAnyRegister" }, "address": { "streetAddress": "10 South Colonnade", "locality": "London", "region": "UKI42", "postalCode": "E14 4BU", "countryName": "United Kingdom" }, "contactPoint": { "email": "GADCommercial@gad.gov.uk" }, "roles": [ "buyer" ], "details": { "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/government-actuarys-department", "classifications": [ { "scheme": "TED_CA_TYPE", "id": "MINISTRY", "description": "Ministry or any other national or federal authority, including their regional or local subdivisions" }, { "scheme": "COFOG", "id": "04", "description": "Economic affairs" } ] } }, { "name": "Conning Holdings Limited", "id": "GB-COH-09632069", "identifier": { "legalName": "Conning Holdings Limited", "id": "09632069", "scheme": "GB-COH" }, "address": { "streetAddress": "24 Monument Street", "locality": "London", "region": "UK", "postalCode": "EC3R 8AJ", "countryName": "United Kingdom" }, "roles": [ "supplier" ], "details": { "scale": "large" } }, { "name": "Government Actuary's Department", "id": "GB-FTS-15692", "identifier": { "legalName": "Government Actuary's Department" }, "address": { "locality": "London", "countryName": "United Kingdom" }, "roles": [ "reviewBody" ] } ], "buyer": { "id": "GB-FTS-120485", "name": "Government Actuary Department" }, "contracts": [ { "id": "024497-2024-1", "awardID": "024497-2024-1", "status": "active", "value": { "amount": 10000, "currency": "GBP" }, "dateSigned": "2024-02-15T00:00:00Z" } ], "bids": { "statistics": [ { "id": "2", "measure": "bids", "relatedLot": "1", "value": 4 } ] }, "language": "en" } ], "compiledRelease": { "tag": [ "compiled" ], "id": "ocds-h6vhtk-02c7d3-2024-08-05T13:03:00+01:00", "date": "2024-08-05T13:03:00+01:00", "ocid": "ocds-h6vhtk-02c7d3", "description": "See Invitation to Tender through link - https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Notice/92b4b397-37cf-411d-8cf7-b90f5ef2f744", "initiationType": "tender", "tender": { "id": "CON005", "legalBasis": { "id": "32014L0024", "scheme": "CELEX" }, "title": "Economic Scenario Files", "status": "complete", "classification": { "scheme": "CPV", "id": "79311400", "description": "Economic research services" }, "mainProcurementCategory": "services", "description": "The Government Actuary's Department is seeking a Provider to provide stochastic simulations of economic scenarios and asset returns.", "value": { "amount": 10000, "currency": "GBP" }, "lots": [ { "id": "1", "description": "The Government Actuary's Department ('GAD') is a non-ministerial Government department with a \nmission to improve the stewardship of public sector finances by supporting effective decisionmaking and robust financial reporting through actuarial analysis, modelling and advice. We provide \nactuarial solutions including financial risk analysis, modelling and advice to support the UK public \nsector. We apply the actuarial profession's technical skills, consultancy discipline, high standards \nof professionalism and industry sector knowledge to solve financial challenges faced by the UK \npublic sector.\nGAD is currently advising a client who requires analysis of future asset and liability outcomes. To \nsupport our advice in this area, GAD are looking to tender for a contract for the provision of a \nstochastic real-world economic scenario set (\"scenario set\" or \"economic scenario file\"). The \neconomic scenario file should contain stochastic forecasts of economic scenarios covering \ninvestment returns for a range of asset classes, as well as inflation measures, for a retail investor \nin the UK.\nGAD already receives quarterly scenario sets from our regular projection provider and this contract \nis a one-off exercise to supplement those projections, to help us test the sensitivity of our analysis \nto the selected scenarios. While the focus of this work is to satisfy the requirements of a single \nGovernment Actuary's Department - Invitation to Tender - Economic Scenarios\n19\nclient, we reserve the right to use any scenario sets provided to us as part of this contract in work \nfor other clients where we deem it to be applicable.\nWe require an initial scenario set calibrated with an effective date as at or before 31 December\n2023 and delivered as soon as possible after the tender is awarded. This calibration should be \nbased on standard assumptions that reflect the provider's own views.\nBased on this scenario set and subsequent engagement between the supplier, GAD and the \nclient, additional scenarios set may be required. Depending on the views of the client, the potential \noutcomes include:\n• No additional scenario sets are required.\n• One or more additional scenario sets, which reflect the provider's own views, are \nrequired.\n• One or more additional scenario sets, adjusted in consultation with GAD and the client, \nare required.\nThese additional scenario sets will be calibrated with an effective date as at or after 31 December \n2023. These additional scenario sets will be covered under this contract (ie separate procurement \nexercises will not be conducted). Based on our current timelines, GAD expect we will only require \none additional scenario set, if any additional scenario sets are required. \nPlease highlight in your costings the impact of these different options. \nWe also require that the scenarios:\n• Are based on sound economic principles and methods.\n• Are calibrated to reflect the market and economic conditions at the effective date to \nensure consistency with the date at which they are used.\n• Are calibrated to reflect the provider's own view on the long-term outcome for key \neconomic variables in the scenario set, with any changes as required based on \nconsultation with GAD and our client.\nGAD recognises that it may also be possible to procure access to an \"economic scenario model\" \nto provide the capability for GAD to produce the scenarios files described above ourselves. Due to \ncurrent levels of capacity and capability, our preference is for the scenario sets to be provided to \nus based on calibration targets, adjustments and stresses that are discussed and agreed with the \nsupplier. It is therefore essential that tenderers have the capability to deliver scenarios to us \ndirectly.\nThe outcome of this analysis will be published publicly, alongside some detail of the underlying \nasset and liability assumptions. 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in particular in relation to asset returns, inflation and future interest rates. To support our advice in this area, GAD are looking to tender for a contract for the provision of a set of stochastic economic scenarios (\"scenarios\", \"scenario set\" or \"economic scenario file\").\nThe economic scenario file should contain stochastic forecasts of economic scenarios covering inflation, interest rates, credit, derivatives, FX and a range of asset classes. The scenarios are used in several areas of our advice, particularly for asset liability model runs for pension schemes, and are used to examine and illustrate the potential range of possible future outcomes.\nWe require that a set of scenarios be provided to us regularly, at least quarterly, over the period of the contract. We also required that the scenarios:\ni) are based on sound economic principles and methods;\nii) are calibrated to reflect the market and economic conditions at the effective date of the calibration to ensure consistency with the date at which they are used; and\niii) are calibrated to reflect either the provider's own view or GAD's own house-view on the long-term outcome for key economic variables in the scenario set.\nGAD does not currently have a current provider of this service, though we have previously purchased one-off calibrations to support particular projects.\nIn addition to the standard scenario files based on these principles, it is standard actuarial practice to consider other plausible assumptions and demonstrate the sensitivity of our advice to other assumptions. To inform this, we also require the ability to generate additional scenarios based on alternative views and calibration parameters and/or carry out stress testing on the scenario set.\nGAD recognises that it may also be possible to procure access to an \"economic scenario model\" to provide the capability for GAD to produce the scenarios files described above ourselves. Due to current levels of capacity and capability, our preference is for the scenario sets to be provided to us based on calibration targets, adjustments and stresses that are discussed and agreed with the supplier. It is therefore essential that tenderers have the capability to deliver scenarios to us directly. However, depending on the level of capacity and capability required to maintain and run such models ourselves, GAD are interested to explore this as an additional service and tenderers are invited to disclose such service provision in their response.\nTenders for must be submitted via email to procurement@gad.gov.uk. Failure to do so may result in the tender response not being processed or the response being automatically disqualified during the evaluation stage of the tender process." }, { "releaseID": "024497-2024", "releaseDate": "2024-08-05T13:03:00+01:00", "releaseTag": [ "award", "contract" ], "value": "The Government Actuary's Department is seeking a Provider to provide stochastic simulations of economic scenarios and asset returns." } ], "value": { "amount": [ { "releaseID": "016481-2021", "releaseDate": "2021-07-14T13:03:38+01:00", "releaseTag": [ "tender" ], "value": 10000 } ], "currency": [ { "releaseID": "016481-2021", "releaseDate": "2021-07-14T13:03:38+01:00", "releaseTag": [ "tender" ], "value": "GBP" } ] }, "lots": [ { "id": "1", "description": [ { "releaseID": "016481-2021", "releaseDate": "2021-07-14T13:03:38+01:00", "releaseTag": [ "tender" ], "value": "A key part of our advice relates to, or relies on, the potential outturns for key economic variables - in particular in relation to asset returns, inflation and future interest rates. To support our advice in this area, GAD are looking to tender for a contract for the provision of a set of stochastic economic scenarios (\"scenarios\", \"scenario set\" or \"economic scenario file\").\nThe economic scenario file should contain stochastic forecasts of economic scenarios covering inflation, interest rates, credit, derivatives, FX and a range of asset classes. The scenarios are used in several areas of our advice, particularly for asset liability model runs for pension schemes, and are used to examine and illustrate the potential range of possible future outcomes.\nWe require that a set of scenarios be provided to us regularly, at least quarterly, over the period of the contract. We also required that the scenarios:\ni) are based on sound economic principles and methods;\nii) are calibrated to reflect the market and economic conditions at the effective date of the calibration to ensure consistency with the date at which they are used; and\niii) are calibrated to reflect either the provider's own view or GAD's own house-view on the long-term outcome for key economic variables in the scenario set.\nGAD does not currently have a current provider of this service, though we have previously purchased one-off calibrations to support particular projects.\nIn addition to the standard scenario files based on these principles, it is standard actuarial practice to consider other plausible assumptions and demonstrate the sensitivity of our advice to other assumptions. To inform this, we also require the ability to generate additional scenarios based on alternative views and calibration parameters and/or carry out stress testing on the scenario set.\nGAD recognises that it may also be possible to procure access to an \"economic scenario model\" to provide the capability for GAD to produce the scenarios files described above ourselves. Due to current levels of capacity and capability, our preference is for the scenario sets to be provided to us based on calibration targets, adjustments and stresses that are discussed and agreed with the supplier. It is therefore essential that tenderers have the capability to deliver scenarios to us directly. However, depending on the level of capacity and capability required to maintain and run such models ourselves, GAD are interested to explore this as an additional service and tenderers are invited to disclose such service provision in their response.\nTenders for must be submitted via email to procurement@gad.gov.uk. Failure to do so may result in the tender response not being processed or the response being automatically disqualified during the evaluation stage of the tender process." }, { "releaseID": "024497-2024", "releaseDate": "2024-08-05T13:03:00+01:00", "releaseTag": [ "award", "contract" ], "value": "The Government Actuary's Department ('GAD') is a non-ministerial Government department with a \nmission to improve the stewardship of public sector finances by supporting effective decisionmaking and robust financial reporting through actuarial analysis, modelling and advice. We provide \nactuarial solutions including financial risk analysis, modelling and advice to support the UK public \nsector. We apply the actuarial profession's technical skills, consultancy discipline, high standards \nof professionalism and industry sector knowledge to solve financial challenges faced by the UK \npublic sector.\nGAD is currently advising a client who requires analysis of future asset and liability outcomes. To \nsupport our advice in this area, GAD are looking to tender for a contract for the provision of a \nstochastic real-world economic scenario set (\"scenario set\" or \"economic scenario file\"). The \neconomic scenario file should contain stochastic forecasts of economic scenarios covering \ninvestment returns for a range of asset classes, as well as inflation measures, for a retail investor \nin the UK.\nGAD already receives quarterly scenario sets from our regular projection provider and this contract \nis a one-off exercise to supplement those projections, to help us test the sensitivity of our analysis \nto the selected scenarios. While the focus of this work is to satisfy the requirements of a single \nGovernment Actuary's Department - Invitation to Tender - Economic Scenarios\n19\nclient, we reserve the right to use any scenario sets provided to us as part of this contract in work \nfor other clients where we deem it to be applicable.\nWe require an initial scenario set calibrated with an effective date as at or before 31 December\n2023 and delivered as soon as possible after the tender is awarded. This calibration should be \nbased on standard assumptions that reflect the provider's own views.\nBased on this scenario set and subsequent engagement between the supplier, GAD and the \nclient, additional scenarios set may be required. Depending on the views of the client, the potential \noutcomes include:\n• No additional scenario sets are required.\n• One or more additional scenario sets, which reflect the provider's own views, are \nrequired.\n• One or more additional scenario sets, adjusted in consultation with GAD and the client, \nare required.\nThese additional scenario sets will be calibrated with an effective date as at or after 31 December \n2023. These additional scenario sets will be covered under this contract (ie separate procurement \nexercises will not be conducted). Based on our current timelines, GAD expect we will only require \none additional scenario set, if any additional scenario sets are required. \nPlease highlight in your costings the impact of these different options. \nWe also require that the scenarios:\n• Are based on sound economic principles and methods.\n• Are calibrated to reflect the market and economic conditions at the effective date to \nensure consistency with the date at which they are used.\n• Are calibrated to reflect the provider's own view on the long-term outcome for key \neconomic variables in the scenario set, with any changes as required based on \nconsultation with GAD and our client.\nGAD recognises that it may also be possible to procure access to an \"economic scenario model\" \nto provide the capability for GAD to produce the scenarios files described above ourselves. Due to \ncurrent levels of capacity and capability, our preference is for the scenario sets to be provided to \nus based on calibration targets, adjustments and stresses that are discussed and agreed with the \nsupplier. It is therefore essential that tenderers have the capability to deliver scenarios to us \ndirectly.\nThe outcome of this analysis will be published publicly, alongside some detail of the underlying \nasset and liability assumptions. 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